by XIN Yuan
China's exports grew faster than expected in December, customs data showed on Wednesday, while analysts said growth is likely to slow in 2026 amid softer global trade and U.S. tariffs.
Data from the General Administration of Customs on Wednesday showed exports rose 6.6% year on year in December 2025, while imports increased 5.7%. For the full year, exports grew 5.5%, easing from 5.9% in 2024, and imports were flat.
At a briefing, WANG Jun,the deputy director of China's customs, said the external environment remains "complex and challenging," but added that China's trade fundamentals remain solid, citing its institutional strengths, diversified trade partners and improved resilience to external shocks.
The World Trade Organization has cut its 2026 global goods trade growth forecast to 0.5%, while the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development expects global trade growth to weaken further next year.
Analysts said December's resilience reflected market diversification and earlier front-loading of trade. WANG Qing, chief macro analyst at Golden Credit Rating, told Jiemian News that faster exports to non-U.S. markets, including the European Union and Belt and Road economies, offset a near 20% drop in shipments to the United States, while manufacturing upgrades and the global AI investment boom lifted exports of chips and vehicles.
Looking ahead, Wang said export growth could slow to around 1.0% in 2026, with shipments to the United States continuing to fall under tariffs averaging 31.4%.
Some economists said China's exports may retain resilience despite the headwinds. LUO Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, said demand from emerging markets, global AI-related investment and China's strength in mid- and upstream manufacturing should continue to support shipments of intermediate and capital goods.
