by LIU Ting
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday raised its 2025 China growth forecast to 5.0%, up from 4.8%, and lifted its 2026 estimate to 4.5% from 4.2%, saying recent stimulus measures and firmer exports have improved the near-term outlook.
"Despite sizable shocks, China's economy has shown remarkable resilience," Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in Beijing. She noted China is taking more concrete steps to shift from export-led to consumption-driven growth, though she cautioned that achieving next year's target is "not an easy task" amid heightened trade tensions. The IMF said the weaker 2026 projection reflects softer expected external demand and the usual lag before policy effects are fully felt.
Georgieva noted that even at 4.5%, China's expected growth would still exceed the IMF's 2.2% global forecast for 2026.
The Fund expects China's CPI to rise from 0% in 2025 to 0.8% in 2026.
An IMF delegation visited Beijing and Shanghai from December 1–10 for its Article IV consultation, meeting Premier LI Qiang and other senior economic policymakers. Following the visit, Sonali Jain-Chandra, the IMF's China mission chief, said China should expand fiscal support, strengthen social safety nets to reduce high precautionary savings, allow greater exchange-rate flexibility and move faster to stabilize its property sector.
She also called for restructuring unsustainable local government financing-vehicle debt and tightening medium-term fiscal frameworks once deflationary pressures ease. Structural reforms, she said, should focus on lowering domestic trade barriers, opening services sectors and improving labor-market flexibility to offset slowing productivity and demographic headwinds.
The IMF said that if such reforms advance, they could lift China's GDP by an additional 2.5 percentage points by 2030, raising domestic living standards and contributing to stronger global growth.
