by LI Kewen
China's vaccine makers are expanding more aggressively overseas as demand weakens at home and exports show their first sustained uptick since the pandemic, pushing companies to lean more on emerging markets for growth.
China shipped US$212 million worth of human-use vaccines in 2024, a 6 percent increase and the first annual rise in three years, according to customs data. The increase marks the first annual rise in three years, breaking a stretch of post-Covid contraction in global orders. Companies are now securing longer supply arrangements and deepening partnerships in markets from Southeast Asia to Latin America.
One of the biggest examples is a US$700 million, 10-year deal Sinovac Biotech signed with Brazil late last month to supply varicella and rabies vaccines. The agreement, which also involves technology cooperation with local institutes Tecpar and Eurofarma, remains one of the largest overseas contracts won by a Chinese vaccine producer and highlights how demand in major emerging economies is shaping the industry's next phase.
Executives say more deals are coming. WANG Hongyi, vice-president at CanSino Biologics, said Chinese vaccine exports are nearing an inflection point as more products clear two- to three-year regulatory cycles and companies push multiple filings forward at once. Average export prices rose nearly 10 percent last year as shipments continued to shift toward higher-value products, including pneumococcal (PCV13), meningococcal (MCV4), hepatitis A, varicella and influenza vaccines.
Chinese suppliers are gaining traction in North Africa, South Asia and parts of Latin America. Morocco, Pakistan and Egypt posted some of the fastest import growth last year, while Turkey, Brazil and Thailand bought tens of millions of dollars' worth of Chinese vaccines. CanSino's MCV4 shot obtained registration in Indonesia, where the company is running additional trials. Sinovac said its hepatitis A vaccine has been used in more than 40 countries, and Walvax Biotechnology and Wantai BioPharm reported increasing shipments across emerging markets.
The overseas pivot comes amid a sharp slowdown at home. China's batch-release approvals — a key measure of vaccine demand — have fallen about 20 percent since 2021 as birth rates decline, household budgets tighten, and price competition intensifies. Some bids have dropped so low that industry groups have warned manufacturers against quoting below cost. Pipeline pressure is also building, with more than 20 domestic companies at times pursuing similar products in HPV, influenza, pneumococcal and RSV categories.
Crowding is pushing producers outward. Many lower- and middle-income countries are trying to build vaccine self-sufficiency after Covid-19 exposed global supply risks, creating openings for suppliers able to provide both volume and technology transfer. Chinese firms, supported by large manufacturing capacity and engineering know-how, see room to expand as multinationals including Pfizer, Sanofi, Merck and GSK continue to concentrate on the US, Europe and China.
The export model is changing as a result. Companies are moving beyond finished-dose shipments toward cooperation structures that include fill-and-finish partnerships, localized manufacturing, overseas clinical trials and joint development. Walvax agreed in 2025 to localize production of its PCV13 vaccine with Pharmaniaga in Malaysia. Sinovac's Brazil deal goes further by supporting the creation of a domestic vaccine platform to secure long-term supply.
Significant barriers remain. Global procurement is still dominated by four multinational suppliers, and governments are cautious about switching manufacturers, especially for childhood vaccines. MENG Weining, a vice-president at Sinovac, said about 90 percent of worldwide vaccine purchases run through government programs that favor established suppliers, making tenders a high-stakes process in which winners capture entire markets and losers face a reset.
Chinese producers will need to show consistent quality, meet increasingly complex compliance requirements and build long-term trust with health authorities to move into national immunization programs. For now, rising exports and a growing pipeline of localization deals suggest China's vaccine industry is entering a new phase — one driven less by domestic demand and more by emerging-market gaps that widened after the pandemic.
