by XIN Yuan
China's exports returned to growth in November, lifted by favorable base effects and firmer demand in parts of the manufacturing sector, even as higher U.S. tariffs continued to weigh on the global trade outlook.
Customs data on Monday showed outbound shipments rose 5.9% YoY in dollar terms after a 1.1% decline in October. Imports increased 1.9%, generating a US$111.68 billion trade surplus.
A sharp slowdown in late 2024 flattered this year's reading. Global trade also steadied modestly after an October slump linked to U.S. tariff hikes on the EU, Vietnam and others. South Korea's exports, a proxy for global demand, grew 8.4% in November.
From January to November, exports to ASEAN rose 13.7%, while shipments to the EU climbed 8.1%. Exports to the United States fell 18.9%, with the drop deepening.
Analysts expect December export growth to slow sharply as base effects turn less favorable and global demand remains weak. ZHANG Di, macro analyst at China Galaxy Securities, said the drag from U.S. tariffs is gradually fading and that China's competitiveness in higher-value manufacturing continues to improve, helping cushion overall export performance.
Imports may also ease in December, though last year's low base still provides some support. FENG Lin of Golden Credit Rating said China's processing-trade structure meant November's export rebound helped lift inbound shipments.
Beijing's latest stimulus — roughly RMB 1 trillion in policy loans and bond quotas rolled out since late September — is expected to support activity into year-end. Analysts said the measures may give imports some lift.
